This paper establishes a dynamically optimized model of sustainable development for Hebei's water resource, water environment and social economy based on input/output table, and uses LINGO software to simulate the economic growth in different scenarios under dual constraints of water resource and environment. In the case of optimized scenario (comprehensive scenario), industrial adjustment, fiscal allowance for recycling water and southwaternorthtransfer, introduction of waste water processing technology can promote the sustainable development of Hebei's water resource, environment and economy. COD emission will be reduced by 10% in 2025 compared to the year of 2015. Economic growth rate will be 7.51% annually from 2007 to 2025. Industrial structure will be optimized to 12∶32∶54 in 2025 among the three industries. Water use in agriculture, industry, living and landscaping will be optimized to 59%, 21%, 12% and 8%. Underground water, surface water, recycling water and input water will be optimized to 63%, 16%, 7% and 13%. Hebei provincial government will provide fiscal allowance 7.813 billion RMB in water resource supply, of which 5.225 in newlyconstructed waste water plants, and 2.588 in recycling water piping.
In order to mitigate the shortage of water resources in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area, government attempts to change the traditional decentralized water resource allocation model into a unified platform. This paper, by making a detailed social accounting matrix of water production and supply in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, uses multiplier analysis and structured path analysis to compare their economic influence and path changes if water production and supply changes. After unified allocation, Beijing's driving force of water production and supply is declining, but there is a rise in capital circulation proportion; Tianjin and Hebei's driving force is rising with an increasing linkage in production departments, and Tianjin's residents' capital income also rises. That means the unified mode has a positive influence on Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei's water industry. This paper suggests establishing and optimizing trans-region water resource allocation mechanism in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei for a co-integrated development.
BeijingTianjinHebei located in the Northern China is seriously short of water that the water supply is less than the half of demand. Agricultural water mounts up to 70%, and in rising. A rational allocation of water use can help the sustainable development in this area. This paper by using the virtual water algorithm measures their virtual water of ten agricultural products and establishes a fixed effect regress model to analyze its influence on economy. Adjusting agricultural structure can reach the objective of saving water and promoting sustainable development of economy. In 2014 the virtual water of agriculture is 10 times the actual water use, 1854×1010m3. Their annual virtual water in ten agricultural products rank in order, grain crops, poultry eggs, forest products, meat, dry and fresh fruit, milk, vegetables, fishing products, oil products and cotton. It could save 32×108m3 every year under an open system through adjusting agricultural structure and virtual water trade.